John McGuirk

I don’t anticipate doing any political work again for a good long while, but once bitten by the campaign bug it stays with you. Tonight’s Vincent Browne programme was nothing special in itself – a special programme on Fine Gael, but it raised an interesting question: Is a change of Government at the next election inevitable?

To listen to the Fine Gael representatives on the panel, whose attempts at modesty were unconvincing, you would think so. To listen to the political correspondents, who take their responsibility for creating conventional wisdom very seriously, you would think any dissent from that assumption was madness. To listen to Vincent himself, you’d think there wasn’t much point having an election at all.

I know this may come as a thundering shock to any regular readers, but I’ve always had a bit of a contrarian streak where conventional wisdom is concerned. And, despite fear of inducing heart attacks amongst those already shocked, I’ve always had an inate fondness for Fianna Fáil as well. Indeed, I was once a nationally elected officer in that party, and I know it as well as most people. If there was an election tomorrow, and absent the emergence of a more attractive alternative I’d vote for Fianna Fáil, and I think my reasons for doing so can form the basis of a path to victory for the party.

We’re in a mess. Fianna Fáil got us into the mess, and let’s make no bones about that. But as a voter, looking at the Government, I see a coherent plan to get us out of the mess. It took a while, but it’s there. I see a lot of things I like in this new, chastened Fianna Fáil. A willingness to stand up to the Unions. An (admittedly too late in coming and only as a last resort) enthusiasm for public sector reform. A sense that the country is more important than short term politics. A humility, which was not there before.

Now, before you all turn away in disgust, there are still huge impediments to me in supporting this Government. Noel Dempsey, as I said the other day, is a buffoon. Willie O’Dea is still obnoxious. Martin Cullen is still… wait, where is Martin Cullen?

The Party is still nasty, and at times short sighted. I know from recent professional experience that they are callow, dishonest, and willing to tell blatant lies to the electorate to get their way. The thought of putting some of those people near high office makes me retch. (There’s your guarantee that I ain’t gonna work for Fianna Fáil, right there). But then I look across the aisle.

What would an alternative Government do? Fine Gael want to cut public sector pay, Labour have built their recent popularity on opposing those measures. Labour want to raise taxes on those who create jobs, Fine Gael (so far as I know) do not. One party emphasises tough medicine, and rightly says that we can’t tax our way out of recession, and the other party has an admittedly popular policy of sitting on the fence. Joan Burton is a superb politician, and I believe a wonderful person, but I haven’t the foggiest idea what she’d do. And by the way, who would be finance minister? Richard Bruton, calling the shots, and I’m happy enough. Eamon Gilmore, and you can count me out. Richard Bruton, but only suggesting the shots, and I’m out.

There is no coherent policy narrative from the two parties we’d be putting in Government. And we made this mistake before. In the 1980s, in Saint Garret’s poop-heap of a Government, there was no direction, just factions pulling in opposite directions all the time. Can anybody tell me why that wouldn’t happen again? And is Enda Kenny as strong a leader as Saint Garret was? (That itself, by the way, is largely mythology).

In fact, given the degree to which the public sector Unions are going to be key to Labour’s electoral success, why should I not believe that Jack O’Connor will be the dude pulling the strings behind the curtain? I think he would. And I think Fine Gael, desperate for power after thirty years essentially on the sidelines, would accomodate him. There are great people in Fine Gael, especially the young guns on the Front Bench, but for a lot of people in their parliamentary party, this will be their last shot at a Ministerial pension. I don’t see them giving it up for the sake of an argument with Labour over tough decision. The problem with a rainbow Government is that only one party has an ideological streak. The wrong one.

So I can’t vote for them. If I’m voting for the good of the country, it’s got to be Fianna Fáil, bastards though they are. And I don’t think I’m alone in that. Fianna Fáil are never, ever, going to persuade me that I should feel good about going out to vote them back in in 2012, but right now, I have to put the country first.

I think that’s the Fianna Fáil message. I think they have to ram it home. I’d put pictures of Jack O’Connor on every lamppost with Enda and Eamon and ask people to judge who’d be running the show. I’d hold Press conferences every day outlining the differences between the two parties. I’d say the people deserved to know who’d be finance minister. I’d say they deserved to know where the axe would fall. And I bet somebody would take the bait.

I think if people are confronted with a choice between unpopular leadership, and pandering confusion, they’ll pick the former. The economy is still the FF trump card, despite what’s happened. We don’t like the feckers, but I think we’ll still vote for them, if they get it right.

Anyway, midnight ramblings. This may be the most incoherent post ever, but I thought I’d throw it out there.

Update: On re-reading, you could probably take from this without fault that my mind is made up. It isn’t. It could easily change between now and an election, and Fine Gael and Labour people will say justifiably that it’s too far from an election to make an alternative clear. All true. This is just where I stand at the moment, and my vote is there to be won. I think it’s time for a change of Government, but I really need to see more from the opposition. Right now, I think they’re ripe for the picking.