John McGuirk

Most of the discussion in the 24 hours since TV3 broke the news of the Minister for Finance’s illness has centered on the propriety, or otherwise, of the report itself. That said, the accuracy of the report is no longer in question, with various sources having confirmed a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer to various Sunday newspapers. In that context, the debate must move on to the consequences of Mr. Lenihan’s illness, unpleasant as that discussion might be.

Pancreatic cancer is amongst the most serious and life-threatening illnesses around. It’s known as a silent killer, because the symptoms present themselves only in the mid to latter stages of the illness. The three year survival rate is only 30%, and less than one in twenty patients will be alive five years after the diagnosis. Those are horrible statistics, and people of all faiths and none should offer prayers and thoughts to the Lenihan family as they begin to come to terms with the fight before them.

Assuming the diagnosis is what has been reported, and there is no longer any reason to doubt it, there is no way that Minister Lenihan can remain in office. Even if that is his inclination, it would be beyond unfair to ask this man and his family to further jeopardise his health for the sake of a few extra months in office. The treatment regimen he faces is tough, and the stress of one of the more difficult jobs around should not be allowed to add to it. For the sake of his family, and himself, the Minister should stand down at the earliest opportunity. Nobody will think ill of him for it.

His departure would leave a gaping hole at the heart of Government. There are, in all honestly, very few candidates in cabinet who could command the respect, convey the competence, or boast the experience necessary for the job. The Ministers for Justice and Foreign affairs spring to mind, but one of those has never shown any inclination to lead on a controversial issue, and the other has never shown the requisite communication skills to effectively sell the Government’s economic strategy. The Minister for Foreign Affairs would presumably be the frontrunner, but given media reports that he was a leading internal opponent of the recent budget, that doesn’t seem to make much sense.

The job needs somebody with a clear economic vision. It needs somebody who can combine that vision with the political will to carry it through. It needs somebody, in effect, with plenty of talent and little to lose. Of the current cabinet, only one person meets those criteria.

I’ve never been a personal fan of Mary Harney, but in her pomp she was a formidable mind. She has shown a willingness to eschew popularity in order to pursue long-term reforms. On her worst day, she is still smarter, tougher, and more aggressive than nearly anybody else in cabinet. She is leaving politics at the next election, and her only political incentive would be to her long-term legacy. Though widely unpopular, I think there is still a widespread appreciation of her raw talents, and her record and reputation would lend an immediate sense of reassurance to observers both at home and in the international markets. She can also be trusted to pursue the current strategy, coming as it does from her own ideological pocketbook.

It’s ironic and upsetting that 2009 should finish on this note. It’s been the worst year to be Irish for a long time, and the hits just seem to keep coming. Let’s hope for a better 2010, especially for Mr. Lenihan and his family.