John McGuirk

Three quick thoughts:

1) The main narrative behind his leadership has now been fatally punctured. Cowen is the Leader, Kenny the thoughtful, and competent chairman of a cabinet of equals. That image has been fatally punctured – very deliberately – by George Lee. The “he didn’t manage me” line on the Six One seemed perfectly calculated to do the most damage.

2) The Grassroots reaction will be what does for him, in the end, however long it takes. To the average FG member until today, Enda could do no wrong. They were willing to tolerate his weak media performances whilst he delivered victories and prestige. His ability to do both has suddenly been placed in serious question. For any Fine Gael TDs who had been thinking of a heave previously, the hostility of the grassroots to such a move was perhaps the pre-eminent obstacle. The crushing disappointment of todays events to grassroots members will almost certainly leave them feeling more open-minded on the leadership question.

3) Blame has to be apportioned to somebody for this mess. And it has to be somebody senior. A sober reading of the situation suggests that Lee was given the cold shoulder by jealous colleagues eager to protect their own turf. Most of this goes on away from where the leadership can see it – as it does in the schoolyard, too. In truth, Kenny was probably genuinely blindsided by this. But humans need somebody to blame, and when you combine that need, Kenny’s recent media performances, and the first two points I made, I really don’t see how he survives.

So, you know how it is? I go away for a few days, leave the blog idle, and a thermonuclear device goes off in the middle of my absence. George Lee’s decision has political implications, and will, in my view, almost certainly ensure that Enda Kenny’s dream of becoming Taoiseach falls by the wayside despite 35 years of pursuing it. But others can write about that.

George Lee is nothing if not smart. So far today, he’s been on (that I know of) the RTE News at One, Liveline, Lunchtime on Newstalk, and Today FM. He has dominated the airwaves. His message – that he was sidelined and ignored – is the one which has permeated the national consciousness. If my hunch is correct, he’ll be in studio with Brian Dobson this evening, and on the panel with pat Kenny tonight. He knows that the story people hear first is the one they’ll be inclined to believe.

By contrast, the Fine Gael leadership, such as it is, are in hiding in a bunker somewhere. A milquetoast statement from Enda Kenny emphasising the things he had asked George to do only reinforces the narrative that this was about George being ignored – it does nothing to change it, and it must be changed if the party is to limit the damage.

The response they should be making is not to defend themselves against George – he will win any bitchfest by virtue of his lingering popularity – but to take his side. This is a moment for Kenny to step  up and take responsibility. Apologise to the party for not seeing the strain Lee was feeling earlier. Acknowledge that our political system is the problem – something that Lucinda Creighton was smart enough to do earlier when speaking to Eamon Keane – and emphasise the need for change. Damn Lee with faint praise – if somebody as talented and tough as George couldn’t stand the heat, it’s because the kitchen is too hot and we need real reform to make the Dáil a place where talented people can do well without the need for internal party patronage. Done well, it might not save Kenny, but it might turn this mess somewhat back in Fine Gael’s favour.

As it is, they’re bungling this. Massively. As usual. George Lee is martyring himself, and is doing so by not just damning Enda Kenny, but the entire Fine Gael party which he says is cold, cliquish, and hostile to outside voices. On a personal note, and as an aside, this absolutely confirms my own experience with them.

This is damaging not because of Lee – this story will be forgotten in a few weeks – but because of what it does to reinforce the narrative that Fine Gael cannot lead. As in all moments of adversity, there’s an opportunity here to change that. It will not be taken, because the Fine Gael communications shop is, has been, and seems destined to remain, utterly, unforgivably, incompetent.

Did you know that there are only 22 female TDs? And did you know that that equates to 13% of the membership of Dáil Eireann? I was, at most, vaguely aware of this fact. It doesn’t much bother me. The way I see it, the people choose who they choose and then the chosen ones get on with making the choices that we have chosen them to make. Apparently the Labour Party thinks differently, for this evening, Deputy Ciarán Lynch has announced his intention to bring forward the splendidly named “Gender Parity Bill”. According to Deputy Lynch:

“Twenty one per cent of MPs in Portugal are women, while in both Belgium and Spain, 36 per cent are women. In Sweden 47 per cent of members of the national parliament are women, so it clear that we have some serious catching up to do.

We could do one of two things. We could either leave the situation as is and hope for the best, or we could become pro-active and make legislative provision to address the imbalance.”

Personally, I’m a “leave the situation as it is” kinda guy. I’m not going to rehearse the University Debating Society arguments against quotas, good as they are, but it seems to me incredibly insulting to pass a law to help the little ladies get ahead. It immediately demarcates women elected under the process as less deserving of their place than the men, who had to fight against a system that works against them in order to win their seats, and it reinforces the idea that women are weaker than men and need our help to achieve anything meaningful in life.

It’s yet another reason that Labour cannot be trusted with the levers of power. They remain an aggressively radical party committed to an agenda of social engineering based on the idea that we must all be equal, whether we like it or not. Their overriding goal remains the creation of a homogeneous, tightly controlled society where the choices we make must be pre-approved by those who govern us. Every so often, the mask slips. This is such an instance.

UPDATE: I am told that this bill was actually published last year. Old news, but still an awful idea which had skipped my attention until today.

I was in my car this morning, in Dublin City Centre, (where, incidentally, whilst observing the new speed requirements, I was overtaken by a Tricycle) and made the criminal error of turning on the radio to pass the time. I was greeted by a report from the Dáil chamber, where our esteemed leader was answering questions on the economy from our even more esteemed leader-in-waiting. It went something like this:

EK: Taoiseach, the new unemployment numbers are terrible.

BC: The new unemployment figures show that the Government’s strategy is working.

(Laughter)

EK: What steps will the Government be taking to address the unemployment numbers?

BC: The opposition have no policies.

(Laughter)

Meanwhile, out in the real world, where I was being overtaken by a pensioner on some kind of mechanised trolley, I passed a post office where people where queing, I imagine, to get their dole. The que went around the corner, and there were at least 50 people in it. These are scenes that I’d previously seen only on “reeling in the years” programmes dealing with the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s.

The next report was a bit of good news. The Tánaiste came on to take credit for some company creating 70 jobs in North Dublin over the next five years. Apparently, this is evidence that the recovery is underway, and that the Government’s long term strategy is working.

The Tánaiste has been in Dáil Eireann since, I believe, 1987. The Taoiseach, since 1982. Enda Kenny came into the house when Gerald Ford was US President, Paul VI was Pope, and the Soviets had the upper hand in the cold war. Since then, his life has been devoted to the pursuit of public office. I mention these facts because there’s been increased chatter in the last few days about political reform, mainly thanks to the efforts of my good friend Naoise Nunn, whose Leviathan event I look forward to attending tommorrow night.

It seems to me that when you’ve had a comfortable existence in the cocoon that is national politics for over thirty years, you become slightly removed from the every day world that people live in. The conversation in the Dáil this morning didn’t convey to me any sense of the desperation or panic that thousands of people find themselves in. I think it’s common sense that if you want responsive leadership, you need leaders who know what it’s like to live as an ordinary person. This isn’t a left-right issue, it’s an issue of democracy and effective representation.

I know that people choose their politicians and can throe them out at any stage, but for a cohesive political system to function, we need parties, and parties like continuity. This is an area where the interests of the electorate and the interests of politicians, which are supposed to be in harmony, come into conflict. The electorate want fresh thinking and new ideas – politicians want power, and to retain it for as long as possible.

As such, I’m getting back on my term limits hobby horse. I really think that 30 years in Dáil Eireann is not the right experience for a prospective Taoiseach. I’d prefer 10 years, preceded by 10 years in business, or public service. I think most people would agree with me.

I really think it’s something we should look at.